2002 OQ REPORT
The Offensive Quotient (OQ) is a formula for measuring a batter’s productivity and dominance. The concept was devised by the late Leo Leahy and introduced in his book Lumber Men (McFarland & Company, 1994). It is easy to calculate and understand.
Three simple steps lead to the OQ.
1. Outs = At Bats minus Hits
2. Base-To-Out Ratio (BTOR) = (Total bases + walks) divided by Outs
3. Offensive Quotient (OQ) = Player BTOR divided by League BTOR
The OQ is expressed without the decimal point.
A player whose BTOR is exactly the same as the league’s is, by definition, an average batter. His OQ would be 1.00, or 100 when we drop the decimal point. The OQ, then, uses the figure 100 to indicate average batting skill. Above 100, above average. Below 100, below average.
The OQ is a ratio-type statistic that makes two comparisons. It compares what a batter gives you to what he takes away, and compares that accomplishment with those of his peers.
Why is it valuable to know this? Because more bases = more runs = more wins. The guys you want are the guys who give you the most bases per out.
It seems sensible to me. That’s why it amazes me that teams like the Astros and White Sox bat weak sisters Willy Taveras (78 OQ) and Scott Podsednik (85 OQ) at or near the top of the order, where they make out after out without generating nearly enough bases. Managers Phil Garner and Ozzie Guillen have been doing that for two seasons now, and while it’s hard to second-guess two teams that have winning records, I’d argue that they’d have won more games if they’d deployed these guys differently. Sub-90 batters do not belong at the top of the batting order. Managers who place them there are burdening their team with more outs and fewer bases. They’re sacrificing runs, which means they’re sacrificing wins.
LEAHY EXPLAINS THE OQ
Lumber Men appeared in the spring of 1994. By odd coincidence, that same spring Penguin Books published Essential Baseball by Norm Hitzges and Dave Lawson.Essential Baseball promotes an approach to offensive statistics that is eerily similar to Leahy’s, although the authors did not know one another at the time. Essential Baseball's formulae are more complicated and, I believe, less valid than the OQ.
Below is Leahy’s rationale for the OQ, from his introduction to Lumber Men:
“Roger Maris’ quest for the single-season home run record in 1961 is generally regarded today as heroic. But while it was happening, Maris, to his bewilderment and frustration, found himself more denigrated than praised. Maris’ talents were substantial; he was a skilled and intelligent defensive player, a dangerous hitter, and a major all-round contributor to a championship team. That he was no Babe Ruth was self-evident, for nobody ever was or will be. Yet many of the sportswriting experts of the day felt they needed to underscore the point by belittling Maris’ accomplishments. The Yankee right fielder, they wrote, was just a mediocre ballplayer. The proof? His .269 batting average!
“Implicit in this judgment was the notion that one could reasonably compare the players of the present to those of the past by merely checking the AVG column in the table of batting statistics. There were giants on the earth in those days, the scribes wrote in 1961, referring to the 1920s and 1930s. Maris? Rocky Colavito? Harmon Killebrew? Don’t mention them in the same breath as Al Simmons or Paul Waner or Ki Ki Cuyler!
“Since then the conventional wisdom has changed. Now one hears the assertion that players of different eras cannot be compared; playing conditions were different in the old days, so it’s a case of apples and oranges. Ironically this refrain, too, is employed to disparage the modern crop of baseball stars. One hears that although Hank Aaron hit more home runs than Ruth and Pete Rose banged out more hits than Ty Cobb, comparisons are not possible. The old stars, after all, had to travel by train, wear flannel uniforms, play doubleheaders and day games…
“Until now no effective statistical yardstick has existed to measure performance consistently in the face of evolving and fluctuating playing conditions. The issue is important because baseball fans want to compare. They want to know whether Pete Rose was a modern Ty Cobb. They look at today’s players and ask, who are the best of them, and how good are they?
“Baseball is competition, which is another way of saying comparison. Teams compete for supremacy, and managers, seeking a competitive edge, compare players every day as they choose their lineups. Who plays? Who sits on the bench? Who gets sent to the minors? Who gets called up? Fans second-guess these decisions, agreeing or disagreeing. All-Star selections are hotly argued, and opinion is rarely unanimous on the relative merits of contemporary third basemen or center fielders. Comparison is essential to fan interest, and particularly so in the area of batting, the most essential of all baseball skills.
“Players who never make it to the big leagues are usually those who can’t hit; there is always a place for a good hitter. Hits and runs stimulate and satisfy the appetites of baseball fans because they signify success. Scoring is more exciting than failing to score in a game like baseball, where an approximate equilibrium has always existed between offense and defense.
“Most baseball games are decided by just a few runs, many by one. A team is rarely so far behind that it cannot catch up with some judicious batting. Runs are not scored so frequently that they become meaningless, nor so infrequently that action and drama are wanting. The potential for scoring is always present, but not always fulfilled. Batting skill produces runs, but there is only so much of that skill to go around. As pundits often point out, even .300 hitters fail 70 percent of the time. A hitter’s job is to make something happen, and the great hitters are always bigger stars, more fascinating to the public, than the great pitchers, whose job it is to prevent something from happening. As General Francis A. Walker commented about the Civil War, “The sword is ever of higher honor than the shield.”
“It is true, of course, that playing conditions have changed. Stadium dimensions, the height of the pitcher’s mound, and the size of the strike zone have often been altered. Night games and hard artificial surfaces are modern phenomena which affect the physical environment of the game. Equipment has changed over the years, too. Even slight variations in the manufacture of the baseball have profound effects on baseball offense, and such changes have occurred many times in the game’s history. Meanwhile improved glove design has led to better fielding.
“New strategies have evolved. At one time managers expected their pitchers to go nine innings; later it became acceptable to remove pitchers who got tired. Today starting pitchers are relieved as a matter of course, and a batter may see a different pitcher every time he comes to bat. And there have been important rule changes, most notably the legalization of overhand pitching (1884), the lengthening of the pitching distance (1893), the foul-strike rule (1901 in the National League, 1903 in the American), the banning of the spitball (1920), and the introduction of the designated hitter (American League, 1973).
“Home Run Baker hit 9 home runs for the Philadelphia Athletics in 1914 and led the American League. The entire league hit 148 home runs that year in 631 games, with a batting average of .248. The explanation for these low totals is not that the American League hitters that year were a bunch of weaklings. They weren’t. In 1914 the baseball was wound more loosely than today’s article, and old balls were kept in the game much longer, even if battered and discolored. It was so difficult to hit one of these balls out of the park that few batters attempted such a low-percentage play, preferring instead to choke up on the bat and punch the ball to precise areas of the field.
“But every season has its dominant players, the ones who rise above the competition. The Offensive Quotient, or OQ, is a statistic that reveals who they were and are. It enables baseball fans to compare the productivity of players from different eras. Baker’s OQ of 141 (fifth in the league) shows that he was a greater offensive force in 1914 than Reggie Jackson was in 1975, when “Mr October” led the American League with 36 home runs (129 OQ, tenth in the league). Fans can use the OQ, introduced in this book, to answer questions about the batting abilities of all of baseball’s great stars…
“A player fails at bat by making an out. His team gets only three outs an inning, and each out that is made diminishes the team’s chances to score runs. A player succeeds at bat by getting on base. A player who reaches base may score a run (although his chances of doing so depend largely on the actions of players who follow him in the batting order), and he has not made an out. Anything he does to get on base and avoid making an out is desirable, and the more bases he earns, the better.
“A player can reach base by hitting safely, drawing a walk, getting hit by a pitched ball, or by benefiting from catcher’s interference. He may also reach base when an opponent makes an error or chooses to retire another baserunner. The OQ counts hits and walks because they are earned by the batter, and because they are statistically significant events for which individual player totals are available all the way back to 1876. Likewise, the OQ’s formula for outs is uncomplicated: Outs = At Bats minus Hits.
“Runs scored and driven in, while meaningful to record, are situational statistics that are less directly under the control of the individual batter. If there is no one on base, his hit will not produce an RBI; if no one drives him in, he won’t score a run. But whether he gets on base or makes an out depends largely on his own abilities. This is what the OQ considers. Stolen base/caught stealing data are also ignored. Baserunning, although it is offensive in nature, is a separate skill from batting, in much the same way that pitching and fielding are separate facets of defensive play.
“A baseball maxim (not universally endorsed) is that a walk is as good as a hit. The OQ accepts this principle as true. The player who has the patience to let four wide balls go by helps his team in two ways. He gets on base (from which position he may score a run), and he does not make an out. Hitting coaches who counsel players to “wait for their pitch” know that swinging at bad balls is, in general, a low-percentage play. Batters get few hits swinging at pitches outside the strike zone; they are more likely to make outs.”
FRONTIERS OF FUTILITY
In the long history of baseball, Ozzie Guillen was the weakest-hitting player ever to have played regularly (at least 3 at bats + walks for each game his team played) for 5 or more seasons. Here are his lifetime OQs:
1985 | 78 | |||
1986 | 65 | |||
1987 | 76 | |||
1988 | 74 | |||
1989 | 71 | |||
1990 | 83 | |||
1991 | 74 | |||
1992 | 73 | |||
1993 | 79 | |||
1994 | 73 | |||
1995 | 63 | |||
1996 | 68 | |||
1997 | 69 | |||
1998 | 89 | |||
1999 | 70 | |||
2000 | 68 |
BOLD = Qualified as a regular.
Guillen’s career totals: 10 qualifying seasons with an average OQ of 73. Guillen’s offensive futility shattered conclusively the mark of the previous record holder, Alfredo Griffin, who registered a 76 OQ in 10 qualifying seasons, 1976-1993.
Infielder Hal Lanier just missed earning the distinction as worst-hitting regular ever. Lanier was far less accomplished a hitter than Griffin or even Guillen was, but he didn’t qualify as a regular for five or more seasons.
The 1964 San Francisco Giants must have thought they were getting a top-of-the-order guy when they summoned Lanier to the majors in mid-June. Lanier, who was just 21, had hit .305 in 405 minor league games, but no one seemed to notice (or care) that he had zero power and was a first-pitch swinger who rarely drew a walk. Manager Alvin Dark batted him first or second for the remainder of 1964, but the season was too far advanced for Lanier to earn the necessary at-bats to qualify for the batting title.
As a defensive infielder Lanier carried a glove too good to sit on the bench. But by 1966 he was batting at the bottom of the order, where he clearly belonged, and was often pinch hit for in the late innings of close games. Even in an era famous for ineffectual stickwork, Lanier stood out.
1964 | 78 | |||
1965 | 69 | |||
1966 | 70 | |||
1967 | 63 | |||
1968 | 59 | |||
1969 | 62 | |||
1970 | 66 | |||
1971 | 76 | |||
1972 | 58 | |||
1973 | 54 |
Lanier’s career totals: 4 qualifying seasons with an average OQ of 63.
Weak-hitting Felix Fermin played shortstop for four teams, most notably the Cleveland Indians, from 1987 through 1996. Fermin registered these OQs:
1987 | 60 | |||
1988 | 95 | |||
1989 | 70 | |||
1990 | 75 | |||
1991 | 74 | |||
1992 | 85 | |||
1993 | 71 | |||
1994 | 80 | |||
1995 | 43 | |||
1996 | 52 |
Fermin’s career totals: 2 qualifying seasons, with an average OQ of 71.
That's pretty feeble. Imagine my surprise when I read early in 2005 that the Indians had named Fermin hitting coach at Triple-A Buffalo! I guess it was a case of “Do what I say, not what I did.”
In Fermin's favor, he was a tough guy to strike out, with just 147 whiffs in 2,767 at bats (a 1 per 19 ratio).
SUB-80 OQs WITH 600+ AT BATS
Their lack of productivity was embarrassing. Why, then, did they bat at the top of the order for an entire season?
Ivy Olson, 1920 Brooklyn Robins
|
79 | ||
Eddie Mulligan, 1921 Chicago White Sox
|
72 | ||
Hughie Critz, 1930 Cin/NY
|
70 | ||
Oscar Melillo, 1932 St Louis Browns
|
72 | ||
Mark Koenig, 1934 Cincinnati Reds
|
69 | ||
Frank Crosetti, 1939 New York Yankees
|
79 | ||
Bob Kennedy, 1940 Chicago White Sox
|
73 | ||
Woody Williams, 1944 Cincinnati Reds
|
76 | ||
Sam Dente, 1950 Washington Senators
|
66 | ||
Bobby Young, 1951 St Louis Browns
|
78 | ||
Bill Bruton, 1953 Milwaukee Braves
|
77 | ||
Nellie Fox, 1961 Chicago White Sox
|
78 | ||
Bobby Richardson, 1961 New York Yankees
|
72 | ||
Glenn Beckert, 1965 Chicago Cubs
|
74 | ||
Cookie Rojas, 1968 Philadelphia Phillies
|
78 | ||
Sandy Alomar Sr, 1969 Chi/Cal
|
72 | ||
Sandy Alomar Sr, 1970 California Angels
|
76 | ||
Horace Clarke, 1970 New York Yankees
|
75 | ||
Larry Bowa, 1971 Philadelphia Phillies
|
76 | ||
Roger Metzger, 1972 Houston Astros
|
74 | ||
Gary Sutherland, 1974 Detroit Tigers
|
76 | ||
Larry Bowa, 1976 Philadelphia Phillies
|
77 | ||
Robin Yount, 1976 Milwaukee Brewers
|
79 | ||
Dave Cash, 1978 Montreal Expos
|
79 | ||
Rick Bosetti, 1979 Toronto Blue Jays
|
78 | ||
Alfredo Griffin, 1980 Toronto Blue Jays
|
77 | ||
Alfredo Griffin, 1985 Oakland A’s
|
74 | ||
Vince Coleman, 1986 St Louis Cardinals
|
77 | ||
Doug Glanville, 2000 Philadelphia Phillies
|
79 | ||
Doug Glanville, 2001 Philadelphia Phillies
|
78 | ||
Carl Crawford, 2003 Tampa Bay Bucs
|
79 | ||
Angel Berroa, 2005 Kansas City Royals
|
79 |
9 of the American League’s 31 pitchers with 50 or more AB had OQs higher than Sam Dente’s 66 in 1950. Keeping him in the #2 hole all season cost manager Bucky Harris a lot of runs. Dente’s 1949 OQ for Washington was a miserable 76, but that was Ruthian compared to his 1950 output. When he didn’t improve significantly in 1951 (71 OQ) the Senators benched him, then traded him to the White Sox. He never played regularly in the majors again.
When in Bennington, stay at the Knotty Pine Motel.
December 2005
- What is the Offensive Quotient?
- 1889 OQ Report
- 1994 OQ Report
- 1995 OQ Report
- 1996 OQ Report
- 1997 OQ Report
- 1998 OQ Report
- 1999 OQ Report
- 2000 OQ Report
- 2001 OQ Report
- 2002 OQ Report
- 2003 OQ Report
- 2004 OQ Report
- 2005 OQ Report
- 2006 OQ Report
- 2007 OQ Report
- 2008 OQ Report
- 2009 OQ Report
- 2010 OQ Report
- 2011 OQ Report
- 2012 OQ Report
- Baseball's All-Time Worst Hitter
- Base-Clearing Triples
- It Keeps Right On A-Hurtin
- The Greatest Cleveland Indian of Them All
- Walk-Off Walks
2002 OFFENSIVE LEADERS BY POSITION
AMERICAN LEAGUE | ||
C | Jorge Posada | |
1B | Jim Thome | |
2B | Alfonso Soriano | |
SS | Alex Rodriguez | |
3B | Robin Ventura | |
LF | Manny Ramirez | |
CF | Bernie Williams | |
RF | Magglio Ordonez | |
DH | Ellis Burks |
NATIONAL LEAGUE | ||
C | Mike Piazza | |
1B | Todd Helton | |
2B | Jeff Kent | |
SS | Jose Hernandez | |
3B | Scott Rolen | |
LF | Barry Bonds | |
CF | Lance Berkman | |
RF | Larry Walker |
Bold indicates 2001 leaders.
To qualify for this list, a player must play at least half his team’s games at the defensive position indicated.
2002 AMERICAN LEAGUE OQ LEADERS
Rank
|
Player
|
Team
|
OQ
|
|||
1
|
Thome
|
CLE
|
190
|
|||
2
|
Ramirez
|
BOS
|
178
|
|||
3
|
Giambi
|
NY
|
164
|
|||
4
|
Rodriguez,A
|
TEX
|
155
|
|||
5
|
Sweeney
|
KC
|
149
|
|||
6
|
Palmeiro
|
TEX
|
149
|
|||
7
|
Delgado
|
TOR
|
147
|
|||
8
|
Ordonez
|
CHI
|
143
|
|||
9
|
Olerud
|
SEA
|
135
|
|||
10
|
Williams,B
|
NY
|
134
|
|||
11
|
Salmon
|
ANA
|
129
|
|||
12
|
Burks
|
CLE
|
127
|
|||
13
|
Huff
|
TB
|
124
|
|||
14
|
Ibanez
|
KC
|
124
|
|||
15
|
Ventura
|
NY
|
123
|
|||
16
|
Lee
|
CHI
|
123
|
|||
17
|
Chavez
|
OAK
|
122
|
|||
18
|
Garciaparra
|
BOS
|
122
|
|||
19
|
Thomas
|
CHI
|
122
|
|||
20
|
Posada
|
NY
|
122
|
|||
21
|
Hinske
|
TOR
|
121
|
|||
22
|
Anderson
|
ANA
|
120
|
|||
23
|
Beltran
|
KC
|
120
|
|||
24
|
Soriano
|
NY
|
118
|
|||
25
|
Konerko
|
CHI
|
117
|
|||
26
|
Hunter
|
MIN
|
117
|
|||
27
|
Jones
|
MIN
|
117
|
|||
28
|
Tejada
|
OAK
|
116
|
|||
29
|
Durham
|
CHI/OAK
|
116
|
|||
30
|
Koskie
|
MIN
|
115
|
|||
31
|
Glaus
|
ANA
|
115
|
|||
32
|
Spiezio
|
ANA
|
114
|
|||
33
|
Nixon
|
BOS
|
113
|
|||
34
|
Hatteberg
|
OAK
|
113
|
|||
35
|
Daubach
|
BOS
|
112
|
|||
36
|
Winn
|
TB
|
112
|
|||
37
|
Suzuki
|
SEA
|
111
|
|||
38
|
Cameron
|
SEA
|
110
|
|||
39
|
Stewart
|
TOR
|
109
|
|||
40
|
Grieve
|
TB
|
109
|
|||
41
|
Damon
|
BOS
|
109
|
|||
42
|
Gibbons
|
BAL
|
108
|
|||
43
|
Boone
|
SEA
|
108
|
|||
44
|
Jeter
|
NY
|
108
|
|||
45
|
Valentin
|
CHI
|
108
|
|||
46
|
Dye
|
OAK
|
107
|
|||
47
|
Mientkiewicz
|
MIN
|
106
|
|||
48
|
Cruz
|
TOR
|
103
|
|||
49
|
Cordova
|
BAL
|
102
|
|||
50
|
Batista
|
BAL
|
101
|
|||
51
|
Kennedy
|
ANA
|
101
|
|||
52
|
Randa
|
KC
|
101
|
|||
53
|
Vizquel
|
CLE
|
101
|
|||
54
|
Higginson
|
DET
|
101
|
|||
55
|
Fick
|
DET
|
100
|
|||
56
|
Hillenbrand
|
BOS
|
100
|
|||
57
|
Mondesi
|
TOR/NY
|
99
|
|||
58
|
Tucker
|
KC
|
99
|
|||
59
|
Simon
|
DET
|
99
|
|||
60
|
Wells
|
TOR
|
98
|
|||
61
|
Mora
|
BAL
|
98
|
|||
62
|
Cox
|
TB
|
96
|
|||
63
|
Guillen
|
SEA
|
94
|
|||
64
|
Eckstein
|
ANA
|
93
|
|||
65
|
Varitek
|
BOS
|
93
|
|||
66
|
Long
|
OAK
|
88
|
|||
67
|
Singleton
|
BAL
|
88
|
|||
68
|
Young
|
TEX
|
87
|
|||
69
|
Erstad
|
ANA
|
86
|
|||
70
|
Guzman
|
MIN
|
81
|
|||
71
|
Cirillo
|
SEA
|
74
|
|||
72
|
Abernathy
|
TAM
|
68
|
|||
73
|
Perez
|
KC
|
63
|
The 2002 American League base-to-out ratio was .704.
This list includes every player who had at least 3 (at bats + walks) for each game his team played.
2002 NATIONAL LEAGUE OQ LEADERS
Rank
|
Player
|
Team
|
OQ
|
|||
1
|
Bonds
|
SF
|
296
|
|||
2
|
Giles
|
PIT
|
184
|
|||
3
|
Helton
|
COL
|
163
|
|||
4
|
Walker
|
COL
|
161
|
|||
5
|
Guerrero,V
|
MON
|
159
|
|||
6
|
Sosa
|
CHI
|
158
|
|||
7
|
Jones,C
|
ATL
|
157
|
|||
8
|
Berkman
|
HOU
|
156
|
|||
9
|
Edmonds
|
STL
|
156
|
|||
10
|
Abreu
|
PHI
|
147
|
|||
11
|
Green
|
LA
|
146
|
|||
12
|
Pujols
|
STL
|
143
|
|||
13
|
Bagwell
|
HOU
|
142
|
|||
14
|
Burrell
|
PHI
|
140
|
|||
15
|
Klesko
|
SD
|
140
|
|||
16
|
Gonzalez
|
ARI
|
138
|
|||
17
|
Sheffield
|
ATL
|
137
|
|||
18
|
Kent
|
SF
|
137
|
|||
19
|
Dunn
|
CIN
|
134
|
|||
20
|
Piazza
|
NY
|
133
|
|||
21
|
Bellhorn
|
CHI
|
133
|
|||
22
|
Lee
|
FLA
|
131
|
|||
23
|
Jones,A
|
ATL
|
130
|
|||
24
|
Finley
|
ARI
|
128
|
|||
25
|
Sexson
|
MIL
|
126
|
|||
26
|
McGriff
|
CHI
|
125
|
|||
27
|
Vidro
|
MON
|
124
|
|||
28
|
Wilkerson
|
MON
|
124
|
|||
29
|
Rolen
|
PHI/STL
|
124
|
|||
30
|
Spivey
|
ARI
|
124
|
|||
31
|
Alfonzo
|
NY
|
123
|
|||
32
|
Hernandez
|
MIL
|
117
|
|||
33
|
Lowell
|
FLA
|
116
|
|||
34
|
Kotsay
|
SD
|
113
|
|||
35
|
Vaughn
|
NY
|
113
|
|||
36
|
Zeile
|
COL
|
111
|
|||
37
|
Renteria
|
STL
|
110
|
|||
38
|
Jordan
|
LA
|
110
|
|||
39
|
Martinez
|
STL
|
108
|
|||
40
|
Walker
|
CIN
|
106
|
|||
41
|
Sanders
|
SF
|
106
|
|||
42
|
Lieberthal
|
PHI
|
105
|
|||
43
|
Encarnacion
|
CIN/FLA
|
105
|
|||
44
|
Wilson
|
FLA
|
104
|
|||
45
|
Bell
|
SF
|
104
|
|||
46
|
Alou
|
CHI
|
103
|
|||
47
|
Santiago
|
SF
|
101
|
|||
48
|
Boone
|
CIN
|
101
|
|||
49
|
Hammonds
|
MIL
|
100
|
|||
50
|
Gonzalez
|
CHI
|
99
|
|||
51
|
Ward
|
HOU
|
99
|
|||
52
|
Young
|
PIT
|
99
|
|||
53
|
Lee
|
PHI
|
97
|
|||
54
|
Beltre
|
LA
|
95
|
|||
55
|
Biggio
|
HOU
|
95
|
|||
56
|
Castillo
|
FLA
|
94
|
|||
57
|
Aurilia
|
SF
|
94
|
|||
58
|
Alomar
|
NY
|
93
|
|||
59
|
Karros
|
LA
|
93
|
|||
60
|
Lo Duca
|
LA
|
93
|
|||
61
|
Polanco
|
STL/PHI
|
92
|
|||
62
|
Cabrera
|
MON
|
91
|
|||
63
|
Furcal
|
ATL
|
91
|
|||
64
|
Young
|
MIL
|
90
|
|||
65
|
Kendall
|
PIT
|
90
|
|||
66
|
Burnitz
|
NY
|
90
|
|||
67
|
Anderson
|
PHI
|
89
|
|||
68
|
Rollins
|
PHI
|
89
|
|||
69
|
Larkin
|
CIN
|
87
|
|||
70
|
Womack
|
ARI
|
86
|
|||
71
|
Cedeno
|
NY
|
84
|
|||
72
|
Ramirez
|
PIT
|
84
|
|||
73
|
Patterson
|
CHI
|
82
|
|||
74
|
Vina
|
STL
|
81
|
|||
75
|
Grudzielanek
|
LA
|
80
|
|||
76
|
Pierre
|
COL
|
80
|
|||
77
|
Cruz
|
SD
|
80
|
|||
78
|
Wilson,J
|
PIT
|
78
|
|||
79
|
Uribe
|
COL
|
76
|
|||
80
|
Castilla
|
ATL
|
73
|
|||
81
|
Ordonez
|
NY
|
73
|
The 2002 National League base-to-out ratio was .691.
This list includes every player who had at least 3 (at bats + walks) for each game his team played.
MAJOR LEAGUE RECAP
In 2002 38-year-old Barry Bonds delivered the greatest offensive season, as measured by the OQ, in the history of baseball. Bonds gave the Giants more than 2 bases for every out he made, and he was almost 3 times as productive (in terms of base-to-out-ratio) as the National League as a whole. I’ve never seen a hitter who intimidates the opposition like he does. They won’t pitch to him, because time after time he makes them pay when they do.
Next year we will see 3 batters pass the 500-home run milestone (barring injury). Sammy Sosa needs 1, Rafael Palmeiro 10, and Fred McGriff 22. If you hit 500 home runs, you’re elected to Cooperstown for sure, and the fact that the public doesn’t regard either Palmeiro or McGriff as stars won’t matter.
At 38, Palmeiro has over 1000 extra-base hits. He’s going to exceed 1500 runs scored and 1600 RBI next year, and he has deservedly won 3 Gold Gloves at first base. Unfortunately, he has never played in the World Series.
McGriff will soon be 39. He doesn’t have a team for 2003, but I think he’s still productive enough to help someone. He’s got over 1300 runs scored and 1500 RBI. He’s played in 2 World Series. In fact, he has batted over .300 in 50 postseason games, with 63 runs produced. And they’ve stopped calling him “The Crime Dog.”
Now another player has appeared on the Cooperstown radar screen. At only 34 he’s got 2546 hits and is still a regular. He has scored over 1400 runs and batted in almost 1100. He’s won 10 Gold Gloves. In 58 postseason games (2 World Series) he’s batted .313 with 61 runs produced. Why is he one of my least favorite players? Because throughout his checkered career (5 teams and counting for this “superstar”), he’s been the baseball player who has most perfectly exemplified the Randy Moss “I play when I want to play” nonwork ethic. He’s the Mets’ Roberto Alomar.
But on the subject of old nonfavorites, no player shocked me in 2002 like Benito Santiago. At age 37, this old dog (in the baseball sense) actually had an excellent season, for the first time in his life. He was durable, hit adequately, and masterfully handled a pitching staff that was good enough to qualify for postseason play. Believe me, he played far better this year than he ever did before, even when he hit 30 homers for the godawful 1996 Phillies. 2002 was Santiago’s 16th full year in the big leagues. What took him so long?
Hometown fans are crying about the Red Sox, Dodgers, and Mariners, but in my book a team that wins 92 or 93 games is a pretty good team. The Twins won 94, and they’re the toast of baseball. Appreciate what you’ve got. How would you like to be a Mets or Rockies fan?
In Colorado, after three years of trying and failing to win with “pitching, speed, and defense” (management’s words), do you think they’ve learned their lesson yet? In that ballpark, why would you want to load up with punch-and-judy hitters? If you can’t produce a better OQ than 80 (Juan Pierre) or 76 (Juan Uribe) in Colorado, you can’t hit, period. The Rockies need to rethink one or both of these guys.
Once again the Pirates are making noises about converting catcher Jason Kendall to an outfielder. If they do, he’ll give Pierre and Roger Cedeno a run for their money as the least productive regular outfielder in baseball. You’d have to field like Richie Ashburn to deserve regular status with OQs (in successive years) of 83 and 90. (Inexplicably, the Pirates, in their wisdom, often bat him third.) Kendall chokes up on the bat, a real rarity today, but it doesn’t seem to help. If he is any kind of a decent defensive catcher, keep him behind the plate!
Speaking of weak hitters, I still don’t like Arizona’s decision to employ Tony Womack as a leadoff man. He improved his OQ from 75 to 86, but that’s still way substandard. Why would you want to give this powerless out-maker more plate appearances than any other Diamondback? If you must play Womack, bat him 8th, for heaven’s sake. On the other hand, Arizona has won their division the last two years with To-Wo leading off.
I guess manager Bob Brenly is a genius, which exempts him from the laws of logic. But I still insist that if a team’s leadoff man contributes less offense than the average performer (i.e. below 100 OQ), the manager has a serious need to rethink his batting order.
IS HE THE GREATEST?
Do you think Alex Rodriguez is the greatest shortstop ever to play the game? I’m beginning to hear this refrain from many sportswriters and broadcasters. A-Rod has accomplished a lot, and he’s only 27. The numbers are gaudy. He’s certainly the guy I’d like most to have if I were building a team.
But it might surprise you to know that Alex Rodriguez has ascended to nowhere near the level of dominance of Honus Wagner, the best all-time performer at the shortstop position.
A-Rod has been a regular for 7 seasons. In 3 of those seasons his OQ was over 150. His 7-year average OQ is 139. He has never led the league in OQ.
In the decade of 1900-1909 Wagner’s average OQ was 172. He led the league in OQ 7 times. His best OQ was 196, which is 39 points better than A-Rod’s best. Furthermore, Wagner-led teams finished in the first division for 14 consecutive years (1900-1913), with 4 pennants. A-Rod’s teams are not winning teams.
A team of 9 Rodriguezes would beat a team of 9 Wagners only about 40 percent of the time.
If A-Rod is to topple Ho-Wag off his throne, he’s going to have to ratchet up his game another notch. That’s staggering to contemplate, but he’s young, and who is to say that he can’t do it? If he does, he’ll make history and set the baseball world on its ear.
The foregoing makes you appreciate what Wagner accomplished and just how dominant a player he was.
THE FINE ART OF STRIKING OUT
Nothing gets my goat like managers who bench a pitcher who might lose 20 games or a batter who might break the single-season strikeout record. Milwaukee skipper Jerry Royster said he didn’t want to embarrass Jose Hernandez. If Hernandez was embarrassed, why didn’t he shorten his swing? Sitting your all-star shortstop (and the second-best player on the team) when he’s uninjured is a case of not putting your best team on the field. If you don’t care if you win or lose, why should fans pay to see you play? Shouldn’t someone be looking into this? The clueless Brewers are the Cincinnati Bengals of baseball.
In the realm of the strikeout, does anyone remember outfielder Dave Nicholson? The White Sox traded for him back in 1963 after Nicholson washed out with the Orioles. The knock on Nicholson was that he struck out a lot. But Sox manager Al (not Albie) Lopez liked Nicholson’s power and made an everyday player out of him. The 23-year-old Nicholson hit .229 in 1963 and fanned 175 times in 449 at bats. In just 126 games Nicholson broke Harmon Killebrew’s all-time single-season record for batter’s strikeouts by a whopping 33!
The White Sox were ridiculed for playing Nicholson, but nobody pointed out that (1) the team won 94 games to finish a solid second in a 10-team league, and (2) Nicholson’s 116 OQ and 0.8 runs produced/game were respectable offensive numbers. (The White Sox were 8th in the AL in home runs, with Nicholson’s 22 leading the team.) If not stellar, Nicholson’s output was about average for an AL left fielder. In 1964, although the White Sox were still winning, Nicholson slipped to .204 (106 OQ) and lost his job. He was out of baseball entirely before the age of 30.
Today, of course, Nicholson would be Preston Wilson, Mike Cameron, or Jeromy Burnitz. As long as he popped the occasional long ball, nobody would care about his batting average and strikeouts, and there’d be no talk of him losing his job. Naturally, he’d be a multimillionaire. He was a player truly ahead of his time, and wherever he is, I’m sure he knows this.
It will be interesting to see if Cincinnati will unleash Russell Branyan as a regular in 2003. He’ll be 27, after all. If anyone’s going to get to 200 strikeouts, it will be Branyan. If they keep him in the lineup, he’ll have 200 Ks by Labor Day, no problem.
BIG BUCK BUSTS
2002 teams invested a whole lot of money in acquiring and paying high prices for veterans who wasted little time displaying the effects of “long-term-contract-itis.” The Mets’ quartet of Mo Vaughn, Roberto Alomar, Roger Cedeno, and Jeromy Burnitz comes immediately to mind, and Moises Alou didn’t exactly lead the Cubs to the promised land. It’s a long list this year.
Carl Everett repaid Texas with substandard outfield defense and a mediocre 102 OQ. Then he disrupted Arlington Stadium’s September 11 “moment of silence” by jawing at the umpire.
Kansas City’s Neifi Perez’s minuscule 63 OQ was one of the lowest for a regular in baseball history. Yet when manager Tony Pena started another shortstop in his place one day in September, Perez felt so slighted that he refused to enter the game in the late innings when directed by Pena to do so.
Of all the bad decisions the Cubs made, the worst was to lead off with Corey Patterson all year. He gave them an 82 OQ, and he can’t steal bases, either. At age 23, he clearly wasn’t ready, but they stuck with him and sank.
The Tigers gave Chris Truby 277 at bats in about 90 games at third base. His 55 hits produced 23 runs scored and 15 RBIs. He walked 5 times and had 71 strikeouts. Truby’s 53 OQ could have been equaled by just about any pitcher in either league. He ain’t exactly Brooks Robinson at the hot corner, either. But we’re talking about Detroit, so maybe next year they’ll bat him cleanup.
Wonder how Boston would have fared if man-mountain first sacker Calvin Pickering hadn’t spent the year on the disabled list. At the very least a healthy Pickering couldn’t have performed any worse than expensive free agent pickup Tony “The Entertainer” Clark (63 OQ). Clark’s only 30, but the Red Sox would be nuts to bring him back.
For the record, Cincinnati played more than 100 percentage points better when Ken Griffey (OQ 112) was on the disabled list. Do you think that any other team would take Griffey, with that mammoth contract, even if the Reds announced they would GIVE him away? At the time they signed him it was written that the Reds got a bargain. Now Griffey’s contract is the albatross that will keep them below .500 as long as he’s on the roster.
RUMINATIONS
* No major leaguer stole 50 bases this season.
* Arizona’s Craig Counsell and Tony Womack have to form the scrawniest infield tandem in recent big league history. But I’d rather watch them than many of the steroid-inflated steers I see lumbering across the outfield pastures.
* The superstar nobody knows: Chicago’s Magglio Ordonez. And he’s only 28.
* Last year’s breakout stars who weren’t for real: Rich Aurilia, Paul Lo Duca.
* The new Wizard of Oz? Rookie Colorado second baseman Pablo Ozuna.
* Brent Butler (Colorado) will never be the player Brett Butler was.
* Arizona’s Erubiel Durazo is a defensive liability who had a 151 OQ in part-time duty this year. Why doesn’t some AL team buy him and make him a DH?
* Pat Hentgen pitched for 6 different clubs in the Baltimore system this year. One of them was Baltimore, for whom he lost all 4 games he started.
* Which lefthander will Anaheim keep in their bullpen next year, Mark Lukasiewicz or Scott Schoeneweis? It’s the battle of 11-letter surnames, and a headline writer’s nightmare.
* Coming star: Montreal righthander Sun-Woo Kim. I think he’ll be better than another righthander on their roster, Seung Song Blu. (I am not making this up.)
* Two pitchers who won’t make fans forget Dennis Eckersley: San Diego’s Dennis Tankersley and Detroit’s Eric Eckenstahler.
* Sore-armed righthanders Scott Elarton (Colorado) and Seth Etherton (Cincinnati) should be on the same team. Ditto sparkplugs Cesar Crespo (San Diego) and Coco Crisp (Cleveland).
* Who, in your opinion, is baseball’s foremost performer when it comes to standing at the plate admiring his home runs? “Style points” in this event are becoming an increasingly important part of twenty-first century baseball. Personally, I always gave high marks to Glenallen Hill, who didn’t take a step out of the batter’s box until the ball dropped into the stands. However, he’s out of baseball now. Who’s your pick?
* Know your Torrealbas: they’re both catchers, they’re both Venezuelans, and they’re both 24 years old. But Steve Torrealba catches for Atlanta, Yorvit Torrealba for San Francisco. The latter, by the way, is still the only Yorvit ever to play in the big leagues.
* Prediction: as Rod Barajas competes with Chad Moeller for the Arizona catching job next spring, devout Arizona fans will chant, “Give us Barajas!”
* Am I crazy, or is Eric Karros starting to look a lot like Klaus Kinski?
* When in Vaduz, stay at the Hotel Schatzmann.
October 2002